Strategic autonomy and industrial policy in a fragmented geopolitical order: The case for a European response

This article examines the implications of the erosion of U.S. strategic leadership for Europe and argues that the pursuit of strategic autonomy requires a stronger industrial policy at the European level. The analysis situates the current geopolitical transformation within the broader dynamics of European integration, emphasizing how external shocks have historically triggered critical junctures and deeper institutional cooperation. The decline of the American security umbrella exposes Europe to vulnerabilities that can no longer be compensated by free-riding or moral hazard. Strategic autonomy must therefore extend beyond defense to include technological innovation, energy security, and industrial capacity. The paper highlights the need for joint investment, fiscal instruments at the EU level, and differentiated integration mechanisms to overcome political vetoes. It concludes that industrial policy is not merely an economic choice but a strategic imperative linking security, prosperity, and Europe’s role in a fragmented multipolar order.