Le prospettive della finanza pubblica dopo la legge di bilancio

The year 2024 marked the return of the Stability Pact for public finances in European countries, following its suspension between 2020 and 2023. Consequently, 2024 became a year of fiscal adjustment, in line with the trend that had already begun in 2023. Italy, however, only partially aligned with the fiscal trajectories of other European countries. Its fiscal policy was more expansionary in 2023 and it is expected to become more restrictive from 2024 onward. With the return of the Stability Pact, Italy’s fiscal policy now faces the challenge of reconciling four trends that are difficult to align: the growth of capital expenditures driven by European NGEU policies; the rise in interest expenses due to central bank decisions and debt dynamics; the goal of containing the tax burden, as outlined in the government’s programs; and the need to reduce the deficit, as required by European rules. So far, the coherence among these four trends has been made possible by the fact that fiscal balances remain significantly worse than pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, inflation in recent years has provided an opportunity for partial price indexation of certain expenditure items and allowed fiscal drag to support revenue growth.