Seasonality of Tourism Services Demand: An Econometric Analysis
The majority of tourism destinations appears to be characterized by a remarkable degree of seasonality of demand that causes several problems to local firms and administrations, as it hampers the efficient use of available facilities and the development of local capabilities and of the job market. The wide array of issues related to seasonality of demand for tourism destinations has thus stimulated economic research. This paper briefly discusses the essential aspects of seasonality of tourism services demand and describes the main characteristics of the monthly tourist nights in the Province of Lecce, between January 1988 and December 2008. In addition, the seasonality of tourism services in this area is analyzed from an econometric point of view. Two different approaches are followed. The first one consists in the estimation of a SARIMA model based on the original data. The second one is based on seasonal adjustment procedures (TRAMO-SEATS and X12-ARIMA) that eliminate the seasonal component from the original time series. The adjusted data are fitted with ARIMA models. Finally, the forecasting achieved from the estimated models are compared in order to understand the impact of seasonality on the ability to forecast the future pattern of tourism demand.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mul:j1t56u:doi:10.2382/32697:y:2010:i:1:p:29-50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.