Greenhouse Gases Mitigation Strategies for Italy. Economic Impact and Opportunity for Technological Innovations

In recent years, the governments of the main industrialized countries have more and more focused their attention on the issue of climate change, with the point of view that if mitigation strategies can have an impact on the economies, alongside the challenge lies an opportunity. This article provides a brief description of the European strategy, with a focus on the impact assessment (produced for the EU Commission) on the European economies of the EU Policy Package. A particular attention must be devoted to the description of the correct way of interpreting the results derived form different models in terms of economic effects of mitigation strategies: in a partial equilibrium energy system model, the total compliance cost are not net loss in GDP, but the incremental cost that the rest of the economic system would be required to pay in order to comply with the targets. The results of the scenario analysis carried out for the EU Commission through the PRIMES energy system model are described and compared with a similar analysis carried out by ENEA through a MARKALItaly model. The two estimations about the impact of the EU objectives for 2020 on the direct energy system costs are not very different and quite high in absolute values. A further assessment produced through the MARKAL-MACRO version of the ENEA model shows that the order of magnitude of the overall economic cost of the policy package should be in fact much less relevant. The scenario analysis carried out by ENEA shows also the role of different technologies in a strategy able to shift the evolution of the Italian energy system on a "sustainable" path, i.e. a path coherent with both the medium-term objectives of the EU policy package and the ambitious long-term objectives under discussion in most of the industrialized countries.