Scenarios of the Oil Industry of Croatia and the Region: Qualitative Approach

The oil industry is historically burdened by different turbulences and tremors having the significant impact on the market. In order to anticipate unforeseen and potentially harmful situations, some firms as a part of their long-term strategic plans pay attention to scenario-based planning, which is a useful technique for preparation of appropriate strategy and responses to potential unforeseen emergencies. Scenario planning is used for a detailed analysis of the current situation in the market and potential future development, creating a research framework for creating development scenarios. Scenario planning is especially highlighted in the context of oil industry considering the technique actually originated in this business (it was also used in previous military doctrine), where, because of using a scenario-based planning, some oil companies profited and gained a privileged position. The aim of the paper is to provide an insight into the importance and various approaches in using scenario planning today and explain the potential long-term scenarios in the oil industry of Croatia and the region, obtained by means of qualitative research and in-depth interviews with a number of experts in the field of oil industry.