Korea on the edge: Demographic failure in a rich economy

The East Asian countries of China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan share many cultural similarities and connections. As a group, they have the lowest birth rate in the world. Among them, South Korea (henceforth, Korea) has the lowest birth rate, equivalent to less than one child per woman. If this continues, it will bring severe population decline and aging, approximately halving the population size by the end of the century and creating an aged society with three-quarters of the population over 60 years of age. The causes are well known but difficult to address: a demanding work culture with long working hours, a high-pressure examination system that puts demands on parents as well as students, and small but expensive housing in cities. Although previous policy emphasized financial support for the family, its level is still below what is needed. Two fundamental problems are recognized but have only recently been addressed: the effective restriction of childbearing to married couples and the unattractiveness of marriage to many women because of the extra burdens and restrictions which it places on them, especially if they want to work and have children. Here attitudes, behavior, and policy are all changing. Immigration, to which Korean attitudes seem more welcoming than in other parts of East Asia, is bound to play a part. Immigration could preserve population size, but it but can only protect the proportion of the population in working age with increasing levels of migration, which would inflate population size and lead to a population of primarily non-Korean origin.