From Extraction to Development: Critical Minerals and Inclusive Industrialization in Latin America

This paper revisits Latin America’s structuralist and neo-structuralist traditions to examine if the region’s lithium endowment can support a new pathway of inclusive industrialization, in which lithium production is rooted in national sovereignty and contributes to global energy security and decarbonization. The global push for decarbonization, especially through transport electrification, has sharply increased demand for critical minerals, including lithium. While China currently dominates global processing of most critical minerals, the projected demand for lithium will require new production and processing capacity, including in the resource-rich Andean countries of Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile. This surge in demand revives long-standing structuralist concerns about dependence on natural resource exports and unequal global power relations, while exposing the region to intensifying geopolitical competition, particularly between the United States and China, over critical mineral supplies. Drawing on global lithium data and trends and case studies of the three Andean producers, the analysis identifies the policy conditions necessary to shift from extractivism towards sustained development and prosperity. While none of the three countries has yet significantly advanced beyond extraction and early-stage refining, Chile appears best positioned. The Andean region’s ability to harness its lithium endowment is pivotal, both for regional industrialization and for the world’s low-carbon transition.