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From Battlefields to Blooming Fields: The Economic Costs of Restoring Ukraine’s War-Damaged Agricultural Soil

Author

Listed:
  • Pavlo Ostapenko
  • Oleksandr Bonchkovskyi
  • Volodymyr Semenikhin
  • Killian McCarthy
  • Wilfred Dolfsma

Abstract

The Russia-Ukraine war has significantly disrupted global food supplies. The assumption is that after the war, production can return to normal. But is this true? This study estimates the damage to Ukraine’s agricultural soil and the economic costs of restoring it to its pre-war fertility. Focusing on Kharkiv Oblast, we use high-resolution satellite imagery to identify 162,294 hectares of battle-damaged land and estimate that restoring this one region will cost $2 billion. Assuming that Kharkiv is representative, the implication is that it will cost about $20 billion—about one-fifth of Ukraine’s pre-war GDP—to restore all of Ukraine’s soil after the war. Given the scale of the demand on Ukraine’s public finances we conclude that it will be quite some time before Ukraine’s agricultural sector returns to its pre-war levels, and we warn policymakers not to assume that once the fighting ends, farmers can return, and the grain will flow.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavlo Ostapenko & Oleksandr Bonchkovskyi & Volodymyr Semenikhin & Killian McCarthy & Wilfred Dolfsma, 2025. "From Battlefields to Blooming Fields: The Economic Costs of Restoring Ukraine’s War-Damaged Agricultural Soil," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(4), pages 1129-1134, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:jeciss:v:59:y:2025:i:4:p:1129-1134
    DOI: 10.1080/00213624.2025.2575153
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