The Impact of Green-Credit Policy on Carbon Emission: Evidence from Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei Province

Chinese industries have long been characterized as high energy consumption and intensive pollution, posing significant obstacles to sustainable development. In line with the national goals of achieving carbon peak, green credit policies have emerged as pivotal instruments to promote sustainable economic transformation. To evaluate the effectiveness of such policies, this study constructs a dynamic panel model with data from fourteen cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region spanning 2010 to 2021 to investigate the impact of green credit growth on regional carbon emissions. The empirical results reveal a robust and significant negative relationship between green credit expansion and carbon emission, indicating that increased green credit effectively mitigates carbon emissions, which holds after addressing potential endogeneity and conducting various robustness checks. Further heterogeneity analysis shows that the carbon-reducing effect of green credit is more pronounced in regions with a higher share of secondary industry and lower levels of marketization. Based on these findings, this study recommends differentiated policy measures, including promoting the scale and efficiency of green credit, facilitating industrial upgrading, reducing dependency on energy-intensive sectors, and designing targeted strategies aligned with local economic structures. These insights provide valuable policy implications for regional governments aiming to balance economic growth with carbon reduction objectives.