Global Imbalances as Root Cause of Global Financial Crisis? A Critical Analysis
The mainstream blames the global savings glut for causing the 2008 global financial crisis and proposes currency realignment to restore balance. However, this view fails to provide solid theoretical and empirical support to the claim that net inflows of foreign savings reduced U.S. long-term real interest rates and inflated asset prices. It also ignores the role of the global financial system in shaping the development strategy and macroeconomic imbalances in emerging Asian economies. Furthermore, forcing currency revaluation in China and other surplus countries may risk reducing global demand instead of shifting demand from the United States to surplus countries. The paper argues that an overhaul of the defunct global financial system lies at the root of global rebalancing; whereas in the short run, the United States should actively pursue demand-enhancing policies to strengthen global economic recovery.
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