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Can Fiscal Paths Be Sustainable? Evidence from Poland

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  • Tomasz Uryszek

Abstract

This article investigates the degree of long-term fiscal sustainability in Poland through two hypotheses: (I) an inability to generate primary surpluses and a significant grow of public debt volumes have hindered past attainment of fiscal sustainability and (II) the recurring problems with generating primary surpluses will block future fiscal sustainability. The research period covers yearly observations between 1999–2017, as well as forecasts for 2018–2028, which include estimations for different possible fiscal paths in Poland. The analysis are based on two different methods, both deriving from the idea of intertemporal budget constraint: primary gap indicator and Ponzi scheme estimations.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomasz Uryszek, 2021. "Can Fiscal Paths Be Sustainable? Evidence from Poland," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(13), pages 3634-3648, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:57:y:2021:i:13:p:3634-3648
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2019.1668768
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