IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mes/emfitr/v56y2020i9p2007-2026.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Dynamic Industry Return Predictability: Evidence from Chinese Stock Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Wenlong Zhang
  • Yanying Zhang
  • Gaiyan Zhang
  • Ke Han
  • Lirong Chen

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamics, direction, and determinants of industry return predictability in Chinese stock markets during the period 1993–2015. Using the dynamic approach, we find that industry portfolio predictability is time varying and has wide variations across industries. Lagged returns in four industries (banking, real estate, leasing, and information technology) are positively associated with aggregate market returns, while lagged returns for traditional industries are largely inversely associated with market returns. Our findings are consistent with gradual information diffusion across economically-linked industries. The likelihood of industry predictability increases by 4.5–8% in a bull market over that in the bear market. Our results advise investors to distinguish industries and stock market conditions to better time the market.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenlong Zhang & Yanying Zhang & Gaiyan Zhang & Ke Han & Lirong Chen, 2020. "The Dynamic Industry Return Predictability: Evidence from Chinese Stock Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(9), pages 2007-2026, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:56:y:2020:i:9:p:2007-2026
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2019.1624952
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1540496X.2019.1624952
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/1540496X.2019.1624952?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hossain, Mohammed Sawkat, 2021. "A revisit of capital structure puzzle: Global evidence and analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 657-678.
    2. Chung, Chune Young & Liu, Chang & Wang, Kainan, 2021. "The big picture: The industry effect of short interest," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Simarjeet Singh & Nidhi Walia & Stelios Bekiros & Arushi Gupta & Jigyasu Kumar & Amar Kumar Mishra, 2022. "Risk-managed time-series momentum: an emerging economy experience," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 27(54), pages 328-343, November.
    4. Artem Stopochkin & Inessa Sytnik & Janusz Wielki & Nataliia Zemlianska, 2021. "Methodology for Building Trader's Investment Strategy Based on Assessment of the Market Value of the Company," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 913-935.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:56:y:2020:i:9:p:2007-2026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/MREE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.