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Is the Chinese Economy Well Positioned to Fight the COVID-19 Pandemic? the Financial Cycle Perspective


  • Ding Liu
  • Weihong Sun
  • Xuan Zhang


This paper conducts a time-frequency analysis of the macro-financial variables in China to assess its resilience in fighting the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19). We find that the Chinese business and financial cycles over the short, medium, and long terms all are in, or close to, the contraction phase before the COVID-19 outbreak. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy has decoupled from the global financial cycle since 2015. These results suggest that China may be better positioned than other emerging economies to win the war against the pandemic. However, extraordinary macroeconomic policies are still needed to mitigate the pandemic-induced economic meltdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Ding Liu & Weihong Sun & Xuan Zhang, 2020. "Is the Chinese Economy Well Positioned to Fight the COVID-19 Pandemic? the Financial Cycle Perspective," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2259-2276, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:56:y:2020:i:10:p:2259-2276
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2020.1787152

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    Cited by:

    1. Harjoto, Maretno Agus & Rossi, Fabrizio & Lee, Robert & Sergi, Bruno S., 2021. "How do equity markets react to COVID-19? Evidence from emerging and developed countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    2. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Devpura, Neluka & Wang, Hua, 2020. "Japanese currency and stock market—What happened during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 191-198.
    3. Wen, Jun & Zhao, Xin-Xin & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "The impact of extreme events on energy price risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    4. Song, Pengcheng & Ma, Xinxin & Zhang, Xuan & Zhao, Qin, 2021. "The influence of the SARS pandemic on asset prices," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Nana Liu & Zeshui Xu & Marinko Skare, 2021. "The research on COVID-19 and economy from 2019 to 2020: analysis from the perspective of bibliometrics," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 217-268, June.
    6. Xu, Yingying & Lien, Donald, 2022. "Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on price Co-movements in China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Amri Amamou, Souhir & Aguir Bargaoui, Saoussen, 2022. "Energy markets responds to Covid-19 pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. Padhan, Rakesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "The economics of COVID-19 pandemic: A survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 220-237.
    9. Song, Pengcheng & Wang, Pang Paul & Zhang, Baozhen & Zhang, Xuan & Zong, Xiangyu, 2021. "Complexity economic indexes for the energy market: Evidence during extreme global changes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    10. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Peng, Zhe & Bouri, Elie, 2021. "Asymmetric volatility spillover among Chinese sectors during COVID-19," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Wang, Hao & Xu, Ning & Yin, Haiyan & Ji, Hao, 2022. "The dynamic impact of monetary policy on financial stability in China after crises," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    12. Sui, Bo & Chang, Chun-Ping & Jang, Chyi-Lu & Gong, Qiang, 2021. "Analyzing causality between epidemics and oil prices: Role of the stock market," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 148-158.
    13. Cao, Qingzi & Fang, Ming & Pan, Yuying, 2022. "Minority shareholders protection and corporate financial leverage: Evidence from a natural experiment in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Syed Aun R. Rizvi & Ali Sakti, 2022. "Did green debt instruments aid diversification during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, December.
    15. Ka Shing Cheung & Chung Yim Yiu & Chuyi Xiong, 2021. "Housing Market in the Time of Pandemic: A Price Gradient Analysis from the COVID-19 Epicentre in China," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-17, March.
    16. Sun, Ting-Ting & Su, Chi-Wei & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "How does trade policy uncertainty affect agriculture commodity prices?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    17. Chen, Yin-E & Li, Chunyan & Chang, Chun-Ping & Zheng, Mingbo, 2021. "Identifying the influence of natural disasters on technological innovation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 22-36.
    18. Hai Long & Jianzhi Zhao, 2021. "The Impact of SARS Epidemic and Financial Crisis on China’s Economy Structure Referenced to the Potential Impact of COVID-19," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 97-108.
    19. Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2021. "Commodity futures returns and policy uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 364-383.
    20. Li, Xiao-Lin & Yan, Jing & Wei, Xiaohui, 2021. "Dynamic connectedness among monetary policy cycle, financial cycle and business cycle in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 640-652.

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