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Directional Accuracy of Urban Consumers’ Inflation Forecasts in China

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  • Young Bin Ahn

Abstract

We evaluate the directional accuracy of inflation forecasts based on the survey data of urban savings account holders in China. By using a new market-timing test, we show that the urban consumers’ expectations of inflation are not a useful predictor of the overall consumer price index (CPI) and the urban household CPI (U-CPI) in China. However, after our in-depth analysis using the inflation rate of each category in the U-CPI basket, we find that the consumers’ forecasts are useful in predicting the movement of the residence component in the U-CPI basket since the third quarter of 2009.

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  • Young Bin Ahn, 2018. "Directional Accuracy of Urban Consumers’ Inflation Forecasts in China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(6), pages 1414-1424, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:54:y:2018:i:6:p:1414-1424
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2017.1297933
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