IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mes/emfitr/v52y2016i1p110-122.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Beyond the Optimistic Curse: A New Multiscenario Approach to Debt Sustainability Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Bassem Kamar
  • Damyana Bakardzhieva

Abstract

While a careful and accurate debt sustainability assessment (DSA) is crucial for an efficient macroeconomic management, the most widely used framework introduced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suffers from several drawbacks that render its results overoptimistic and misleading. In this article, we correct the methodology by demonstrating how policy makers can develop country-specific “intermediate” forecasts of the determinants of debt dynamics, in addition to coherent “optimistic” and “pessimistic” scenarios. Our application to the case of Egypt illustrates that the debt-to-GDP ratio could increase to more than 100 percent by 2015, in contrast with the 61 percent projected by the IMF in 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Bassem Kamar & Damyana Bakardzhieva, 2016. "Beyond the Optimistic Curse: A New Multiscenario Approach to Debt Sustainability Assessment," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 110-122, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:52:y:2016:i:1:p:110-122
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2016.1105686
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1540496X.2016.1105686
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/1540496X.2016.1105686?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:52:y:2016:i:1:p:110-122. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/MREE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.