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Predicting Financial Distress Based on the Credit Cycle Index: A Two-Stage Empirical Analysis

Author

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  • Bi-Huei Tsai
  • Chih-Huei Chang

Abstract

Predictive models of financial distress are developed using the two-stage method applied to listed Taiwanese firms. Firm-specific financial ratios and market factors are adopted to measure the probability of financial distress based on the discrete-time hazard models of Shumway (2001). The Kim (1999) credit cycle index is further established using macroeconomic factors to determine the cutoff indicator of financial distress. The results demonstrate that performance improves as the distressed cutoff indicators are adjusted according to the credit cycle index in the two-stage models, suggesting that the model effectively predicts financial distress, particularly in emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Bi-Huei Tsai & Chih-Huei Chang, 2010. "Predicting Financial Distress Based on the Credit Cycle Index: A Two-Stage Empirical Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 67-79, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:46:y:2010:i:3:p:67-79
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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Antunes & Rangan Gupta & Zinnia Mukherjee & Peter Wanke, 2022. "Information entropy, continuous improvement, and US energy performance: a novel stochastic-entropic analysis for ideal solutions (SEA-IS)," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 289-318, June.
    2. Hung-Wen Lin & Kun-Ben Lin & Jing-Bo Huang & Shu-Heng Chen, 2021. "Timely Loss Recognition Helps Nothing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-24, July.
    3. Janice M. Barrow, 2012. "A Model For The Intervention Of A Financial Crisis," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 6(2), pages 41-48.
    4. Chueh-Yung Tsao & Chao-Ching Liu, 2012. "Asian Options with Credit Risks: Pricing and Sensitivity Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(S3), pages 96-115, September.

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