IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mes/eaeuec/v64y2026i3p325-367.html

Military Conflicts and Stock Markets: The Effect of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict on the European Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Selma Boussetta
  • Victor Dragotă
  • Andreea Iordache

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 on European stock markets. Our main findings are as follows. First, by distinguishing among developed, emerging and frontier stock markets, we find that these groups reacted heterogeneously to the recent military invasion. Specifically, while most European capital markets experienced a significant decline in returns on 24 February 2022, this effect was more pronounced and persisted longer in emerging markets. This difference is further confirmed by regression analysis. Second, we document a significant increase in the volatility of emerging and frontier European stock market indices following the onset of political unrest, while the uprisings had little or no significant effect on the volatility of developed European markets. Third, similar results are not found for the world and other developed stock market indices, suggesting that the changes are the result of military tensions. Overall, the results are important for including geopolitical risk in analyses of stock market performance and stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Selma Boussetta & Victor Dragotă & Andreea Iordache, 2026. "Military Conflicts and Stock Markets: The Effect of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict on the European Stock Market," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 64(3), pages 325-367, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:64:y:2026:i:3:p:325-367
    DOI: 10.1080/00128775.2025.2463436
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00128775.2025.2463436
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00128775.2025.2463436?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:64:y:2026:i:3:p:325-367. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/MEEE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.