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European Integration in the Light of Business and Consumer Surveys

Author

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  • Petar Sorić
  • Blanka Škrabić
  • Mirjana Čižmešija

Abstract

The process of European integration has necessitated the analysis of the economic convergence between the old and new member states of the European Union (EU). To this end, this paper examines business and consumer surveys (BCS) through the prism of the economic convergence of new member countries. The main aim of this paper is to analyze whether the quality of BCS indicators in transition countries is comparable to the quality of those in developed European countries. This paper provides several extensions to other related BCS studies: (1) it is the first empirical paper to observe each specific BCS indicator and its sector-related macroeconomic variable at the EU level; (2) the data set is extensive, comprising all EU members; and (3) the analysis is based on the recent panel vector autoregressive methodology. It is found that new member states' indicators exhibit pronounced predictive properties and can be used as leading indicators of related macroeconomic variables for even four quarters ahead. This shows that they are as efficient as the indicators in EU15 and that the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys is fully justified on its fiftieth jubilee.

Suggested Citation

  • Petar Sorić & Blanka Škrabić & Mirjana Čižmešija, 2013. "European Integration in the Light of Business and Consumer Surveys," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(2), pages 5-20, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:51:y:2013:i:2:p:5-20
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Blanka Škrabić Perić & Petar Sorić, 2018. "A Note on the “Economic Policy Uncertainty Index”," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 137(2), pages 505-526, June.
    2. Nataša Erjavec & Petar Soriæ & Mirjana Èižmešija, 2016. "Predicting the probability of recession in Croatia: Is economic sentiment the missing link?," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 555-579.
    3. Petar Sorić, 2022. "Ability to consume versus willingness to consume: the role of nonlinearities," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 663-689, August.
    4. Daniel Tomić Jurica Šimurina Luka Jovanov, 2020. "The Nexus between Economic Sentiment Indicator and Gross Domestic Product; a Panel Cointegration Analysis," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 23(1), pages 121-140, May.
    5. Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić & Marija Logarušić, 2022. "Economic Sentiment and Aggregate Activity: A Tale of Two European Cycles," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 445-462, March.
    6. Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić & Marina Matošec, 2023. "The persistence of economic sentiment: a trip down memory lane," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(2), pages 371-395, April.
    7. Petar Soric & Mateo Zokalj & Marija Logarusic, 2020. "Economic determinants of Croatian consumer confidence: real estate prices vs. macroeconomy," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 18(2B), pages 240-257.
    8. Petar Sorić & Blanka Škrabić Perić & Marina Matošec, 2022. "Breaking new grounds: a fresh insight into the leading properties of business and consumer survey indicators," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4511-4535, December.
    9. Petar Sorić, 2018. "Consumer confidence as a GDP determinant in New EU Member States: a view from a time-varying perspective," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(2), pages 261-282, May.

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