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Inflation Forecast Errors in the Czech Republic

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  • Jan Babecký
  • Jiří Podpiera

Abstract

Professional forecasters in the Czech Republic made large average absolute and relative errors in inflation forecasts between 1998 and 2007. However, these errors were, in a majority of institutions, exclusively due to inaccurate forecast of exchange rate development. Although forecasters learned from their past forecast errors, the exchange rate forecast errors persisted. Nevertheless, some of the forecasting institutions, such as the Czech central bank, exhibited a bias in their inflation forecasts even after accounting for the errors in exchange rate forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Babecký & Jiří Podpiera, 2011. "Inflation Forecast Errors in the Czech Republic," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 72-83, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:49:y:2011:i:1:p:72-83
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    Cited by:

    1. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Alexis Derviz & Vaclav Hausenblas & Michal Hlavacek & Mark Joy & Narcisa Kadlcakova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Tomas Konecny & Ivana Kubicova & Jitka Lesanovska, 2014. "Macroprudential Research: Selected Issues," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 12, number rb12/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Borek Vasicek, March.
    2. Hamid Baghestani & Liliana Danila, 2014. "Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Forecasting in the Czech Republic: Do Analysts Know Better than a Random Walk?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(4), pages 282-295, September.

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