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Chinese IPO Market Cycles

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  • Zhong-guo Zhou
  • Janet Zhou

Abstract

A sample of 1,376 Chinese A-share initial public offerings (IPOs) from 1992 to 2005 is used to examine the relationship between monthly IPO volume and average initial returns. The two series are highly auto- and cross-correlated, with average initial returns leading IPO volume. However, the unit root test and Granger causality test reject the hypotheses that unit roots exist for both series and that there is a direct causal relation between them. Further analysis reveals that monthly IPO volume follows an AR(1) process, while average initial returns follow an ARMA(1, 1) process. A VAR model with ARMA specification in residuals finds that the lagged average initial returns have a positive impact on IPO volume, implying that more firms file for IPOs after high average initial returns in the Chinese IPO market. The lead-time is around six to nine months.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhong-guo Zhou & Janet Zhou, 2011. "Chinese IPO Market Cycles," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(5), pages 55-71, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:chinec:v:44:y:2011:i:5:p:55-71
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Holz, Carsten A. & Lin, Yi-min, 2001. "The 1997-1998 break in industrial statistics: Facts and appraisal," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 303-316.
    2. Carsten A. Holz, 2006. "CHINA's REFORM PERIOD ECONOMIC GROWTH: HOW RELIABLE ARE ANGUS MADDISON's ESTIMATES?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 52(1), pages 85-119, March.
    3. Carsten A. Holz, 2004. "China's Statistical System in Transition: Challenges, Data Problems, and Institutional Innovations," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 50(3), pages 381-409, September.
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