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GAM Modelling of Daily Number of Traffic Accidents as a Function of Meteorological Variables in the Czech Republic

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  • Petra Kolísková

    (University of Defence, Brno, Czech Republic)

  • Jiří Neubauer

    (University of Defence, Brno, Czech Republic)

Abstract

Meteorological conditions exert a considerable influence on traffic patterns. This paper examines the influence of meteorological variables on the daily number of traffic accidents requiring fire brigade intervention. The influence of meteorological variables, including maximum temperature, wind speed, air pressure, precipitation, snow cover and sunshine, was examined. A Generalized Additive Model for variables with a Poisson distribution was employed for modelling purposes, as this allows for the representation of non-linear dependencies. The analysis demonstrates that the lowest incidence of accidents occurs at temperatures approximating 10 °C. The average daily number of accidents increases with windy weather, the minimum number of accidents occurs at zero precipitation, and the accident rate rises with higher levels of sunshine. In the Czech Republic, the period of greatest risk in terms of road traffic accidents is the summer and winter months. The findings may have several practical applications, for example, in the improvement of meteorological warnings in traffic.

Suggested Citation

  • Petra Kolísková & Jiří Neubauer, 2025. "GAM Modelling of Daily Number of Traffic Accidents as a Function of Meteorological Variables in the Czech Republic," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 23-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:men:journl:v:11:y:2025:i:1:p:23-38
    DOI: 10.11118/ejobsat.2024.014
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    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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