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Managing the Dollar: Has the Plaza Agreement Mattered?

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  • Klein, Michael
  • Mizrach, Bruce
  • Murphy, Robert G

Abstract

This paper considers whether the Plaza Agreement of September 1985 marked the beginning of a fundamental shift in the exchange-rate policy regime for the United States, the former West Germany, and Japan. The paper uses a simple monetary model of the open economy to illustrate how the exchange rate responses to news about the trade balance when the government authorities gear policy toward resolving external imbalances. The paper finds that U.S. dollars exchange rates against the Japanese yen and the West German mark respond strongly to news about the U.S. trade deficit during the period following the Plaza Agreement but not during the period preceding the Agreement. This evidence, evaluated in the context of the simple model, suggests that the Plaza Agreement marked a significant shift toward more active government management of exchange rates. Copyright 1991 by Ohio State University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Klein, Michael & Mizrach, Bruce & Murphy, Robert G, 1991. "Managing the Dollar: Has the Plaza Agreement Mattered?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(4), pages 742-751, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:23:y:1991:i:4:p:742-51
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    Cited by:

    1. Gupta, Kartick & Banerjee, Rajabrata, 2019. "Does OPEC news sentiment influence stock returns of energy firms in the United States?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 34-45.
    2. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/10028 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Savaser, Tanseli, 2011. "Exchange rate response to macronews: Through the lens of microstructure," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 107-126, February.
    4. Martin Evans and Richard Lyons, 2007. "How Is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," Working Papers gueconwpa~07-07-10, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    5. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Do Currency Markets Absorb News Quickly?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 12, pages 477-505, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Andrea Fracasso & Stefano Schiavo, 2009. "Trade-imbalances networks and exchange rate adjustments: the paradox of a new Plaza. The XIVth Spring Meeting of Young Economists (SMYE-2009), Istanbul, April 2009," Post-Print hal-01053278, HAL.
    7. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 2005. "Establishing Credibility: Evolving Perceptions of the European Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 11792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2009. "How successful is the G7 in managing exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 78-88, September.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/10028 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Rafael R. Rebitzky, 2010. "The Influence Of Fundamentals On Exchange Rates: Findings From Analyses Of News Effects," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 680-704, September.
    11. Puffer, Marlene K., 1995. "Measurement of the unexpected US trade deficit," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 247-273, April.
    12. Goldberg, Michael D., 1995. "Symmetry restrictions and the semblance of neutrality in exchange rate models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 579-599.
    13. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 14, pages 547-596, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/10028 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Fanelli, Luca & Paruolo, Paolo, 2010. "Speed of adjustment in cointegrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 130-141, September.
    17. Tanner, Glenn, 1997. "A note on economic news and intraday exchange rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 573-585, April.
    18. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business), 2005. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates? (December 2003)," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-05, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    19. Chatrath, Arjun & Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay & Villupuram, Sriram, 2014. "Currency jumps, cojumps and the role of macro news," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 42-62.
    20. Almekinders, Geert J & Eijffinger, Sylvester C W, 1994. "Daily Bundesbank and Federal Reserve Interventions: Are They a Reaction to Changes in the Level and Volatility of the DM/$-Rate?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 111-130.
    21. Kevin Evans & Alan Speight, 2011. "Intraday euro exchange rates and international macroeconomic announcements," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 83-110.
    22. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/10028 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. S. Rubun Dey & Christopher J. Neely, 2010. "A survey of announcement effects on foreign exchange returns," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Sep), pages 417-464.
    24. Fracasso, Andrea & Schiavo, Stefano, 2009. "Global imbalances, exchange rates adjustment and the crisis: Implications from network analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 601-619, September.

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