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The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Credit Risk of Banks in Iran (in Persian)

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  • noroozi, payam

    (Sharif University of Technology)

Abstract

Today, banks play an important role by linking the real and monetary sectors of an economy. Banks, like other businesses, face different risks in which the most important one is credit risk. The purpose of this paper is examining the determinants of credit risk of domestic banks, during 2007-2013, using system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The results show that macroeconomic variables influence the credit risk of banks. In particular, real interest rate, inflation, public debt and unemployment rate have a positive correlation, and GDP growth rate has negative correlation with the credit risk. In addition, the bank characteristics such as size and profitability have negative effects, and credit risk of the prior period has positive effect on credit risk.

Suggested Citation

  • noroozi, payam, 2014. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Credit Risk of Banks in Iran (in Persian)," Journal of Monetary and Banking Research (فصلنامه پژوهش‌های پولی-بانکی), Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 7(20), pages 237-257, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:mbr:jmbres:v:7:y:2014:i:20:p:237-257
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    Cited by:

    1. Sanatkhani , Mahboobeh & Bazzazan , Fatemeh, 2021. "Stress Testing of Credit Risk in Iran’s Banking System," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 16(1), pages 93-114, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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