IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/lpe/efijnl/202504.html

The Jokowi Effect on the Victory of Prabowo: Do People Vote for Continuity?

Author

Listed:
  • Cakra Yudi Putra

    (Master Program In Economic Planning and Development Policy (MPKP), Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia
    Total Politik, Jakarta, Indonesia)

  • Dyah Ayu Febriani

    (Graduate Program in Public Policy and Management, University of Melbourne, Australia
    Economy Digital Researcher, Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS), Jakarta, Indonesia)

  • Andri Tantyo Cahyo Nugroho

    (Master Program In Economic Planning and Development Policy (MPKP), Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia)

  • Teguh Dartanto

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia, West Java, Indonesia)

Abstract

The 2024 Indonesian presidential election marked a striking realignment as Prabowo Subianto—a former opposition leader—secured victory with the tacit endorsement of outgoing President Joko Widodo (Jokowi). This study investigates how the enduring popularity and policy achievements of Jokowi shaped voter preferences in favor of Prabowo, effectively positioning the election as a referendum on political continuity. Building on theories of economic voting and retrospective performance evaluation, the analysis explores the impact of district-level economic indicators, social media penetration, ideological orientation, social assistance distribution, and sociocultural characteristics on electoral outcomes. Employing Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression on data from 481 administrative regions, the study uncovers a robust positive relationship between the 2019 vote share for Jokowi and the 2024 performance of Prabowo. These findings highlight the potency of pocketbook voting—voter assessments of their economic welfare—in sustaining incumbent influence and advancing the theory of economic voting by demonstrating how the legacy of a sitting president can persist through perceptions of economic stewardship.

Suggested Citation

  • Cakra Yudi Putra & Dyah Ayu Febriani & Andri Tantyo Cahyo Nugroho & Teguh Dartanto, 2025. "The Jokowi Effect on the Victory of Prabowo: Do People Vote for Continuity?," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, vol. 71, pages 48-68, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:lpe:efijnl:202504
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://lpem.org/repec/lpe/efijnl/202504.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • P17 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lpe:efijnl:202504. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Muhammad Halley Yudhistira The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Muhammad Halley Yudhistira to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feuinid.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.