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Business cycles in Colombia, 1975-2011


  • Viviana Alfonso
  • Luis Arango
  • Fernando Arias
  • Guillermo Cangrejo
  • José Pulido


We propose a chronology for business cycles in Colombia following the NBER classic notion; that is, dates of peaks and troughs of economic activity are estimated without decomposing the series used in their transitory and permanent components. The estimated chronology suggests that the four complete cycles that occurred between 1975 and 2011 are asymmetric and have an approximate duration of 6.8 years. Expansions lasted, on average, 5.4 years while contractions took about 1.3 years. These results are derived from the application of the cumulative diffusion index to 41 series.

Suggested Citation

  • Viviana Alfonso & Luis Arango & Fernando Arias & Guillermo Cangrejo & José Pulido, 2013. "Business cycles in Colombia, 1975-2011," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 78, pages 115-149.
  • Handle: RePEc:lde:journl:y:2013:i:78:p:115-149

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    business cycles; chronology; diffusion; phases; expansion; recession; trough; peek;

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles


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