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Combinacion de pronosticos y variables predictoras con error

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  • Castaño Velez, Elkin
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    Este documento discute algunos métodos para obtener pronósticos mejorados a partir de la combinación de las predicciones generadas por diferentes modelos. Además presenta un estudio de simulación para comparar en el corto, mediano y el largo plazo, el comportamiento del pronóstico combinado de un modelo econométrico y de un modelo arima con los pronósticos individuales de cada modelo, cuando los valores futuros de las predictoras del modelo eco no métrico contienen errores de diferentes magnitudes. Se concluye que con excepción al caso en el cual los valores futuros de las variables predictoras tienen grandes errores, el procedimiento de la mezcla de pronósticos generó predicciones más precisas en el corto, mediano y largo plazo.

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    Article provided by Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía in its journal LECTURAS DE ECONOMÍA.

    Volume (Year): (1994)
    Issue (Month): 41 (Julio Diciembre)
    Pages: 59-80

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    Handle: RePEc:lde:journl:y:1994:i:41:p:59-80
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    Order Information: Postal: Lecturas de Economía, Departamento de Economía, Calle 67, 53-108, Medellin 050010, Colombia.

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