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Sous-estimation des recettes fiscales dans les cantons suisses: prudence ou erreur systématique?

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Abstract

The accuracy of revenue forecasts is central to fiscal policy and management of public finances since they set the limit within which expenditure should remain in order to reach fiscal balance. In the current contribution we apply the method developed by Elliott et alii (2005) to test for the rationality of direct tax revenue forecasts in the 26 Swiss cantons over 1944–2010. We find that the one year-ahead forecast of the growth rate of direct tax revenue is rational and unbiased in a majority of cantons. We also show that the level of direct tax revenue is systematically underesti - mated. Nonetheless, rationality tests suggest that this observed underestimation is due to underlying asymmetric loss functions rather than to an inefficient use of available information. These results tend to support that a certain degree of prudence in government revenue forecasts may be desirable.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian Chatagny & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Sous-estimation des recettes fiscales dans les cantons suisses: prudence ou erreur systématique?," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 7(1), pages 77-90, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:kof:anskof:v:7:y:2013:i:1:p:77-90
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-005427569
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    Keywords

    Tax Revenue Forecasts; Rationality Tests; Asymmetric Loss function; Swiss cantons;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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