Sous-estimation des recettes fiscales dans les cantons suisses: prudence ou erreur systématique?
The accuracy of revenue forecasts is central to fiscal policy and management of public finances since they set the limit within which expenditure should remain in order to reach fiscal balance. In the current contribution we apply the method developed by Elliott et alii (2005) to test for the rationality of direct tax revenue forecasts in the 26 Swiss cantons over 1944–2010. We find that the one year-ahead forecast of the growth rate of direct tax revenue is rational and unbiased in a majority of cantons. We also show that the level of direct tax revenue is systematically underesti - mated. Nonetheless, rationality tests suggest that this observed underestimation is due to underlying asymmetric loss functions rather than to an inefficient use of available information. These results tend to support that a certain degree of prudence in government revenue forecasts may be desirable.
Volume (Year): 7 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Leonhardstrasse 21, CH-8092 Zürich|
Phone: +41 44 632 42 39
Fax: +41 44 632 12 18
Web page: http://www.kof.ethz.ch
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kof:anskof:v:7:y:2013:i:1:p:77-90. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.