IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Sous-estimation des recettes fiscales dans les cantons suisses: prudence ou erreur systématique?

The accuracy of revenue forecasts is central to fiscal policy and management of public finances since they set the limit within which expenditure should remain in order to reach fiscal balance. In the current contribution we apply the method developed by Elliott et alii (2005) to test for the rationality of direct tax revenue forecasts in the 26 Swiss cantons over 1944–2010. We find that the one year-ahead forecast of the growth rate of direct tax revenue is rational and unbiased in a majority of cantons. We also show that the level of direct tax revenue is systematically underesti - mated. Nonetheless, rationality tests suggest that this observed underestimation is due to underlying asymmetric loss functions rather than to an inefficient use of available information. These results tend to support that a certain degree of prudence in government revenue forecasts may be desirable.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its journal KOF Analysen.

Volume (Year): 7 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 77-90

in new window

Handle: RePEc:kof:anskof:v:7:y:2013:i:1:p:77-90
Contact details of provider: Postal: Leonhardstrasse 21, CH-8092 Zürich
Phone: +41 44 632 42 39
Fax: +41 44 632 12 18
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kof:anskof:v:7:y:2013:i:1:p:77-90. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.