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Comparative Analysis Regarding the Accuracy of State Budget Revenues Forecasts in Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Mirela Niculae

    ()

  • Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu)

    () ("Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University)

Abstract

The objective of this research is related to the comparison between the government planning for the revenues and our own forecasts based on an econometric model. An auto-adaptive model was constructed for the revenues, taking into account the previous expectations regarding the government revenues. The U1 Theil's statistic was used to make the comparison between the two forecasts in terms of accuracy. The comparison of each type of prediction with the naive forecasts based on random walk was made using U2 Theil's statistic. The proposed auto- adaptive model could also be used by the government as a possible strategy to improve the government revenues accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mirela Niculae & Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu), 2013. "Comparative Analysis Regarding the Accuracy of State Budget Revenues Forecasts in Romania," Knowledge Horizons - Economics, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 5(4), pages 205-210, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:khe:journl:v:5:y:2013:i:4:p:205-210
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    State budget; forecasts; predictions; accuracy; government revenues; auto-adaptive model;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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