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The Tax-Spend Debate: Time Series Evidence from State Budgets


  • Payne, James E


This paper examines the temporal relationship between revenues and expenditures for the forty-eight contiguous states over an annual period 1942 to 1992. Using an error-correction model, the author finds that the tax-spend hypothesis is supported for twenty-four states. The spend-tax hypothesis is valid for eight states while the fiscal synchronization hypothesis is supported for eleven states. The remaining five states failed the diagnostic tests for error-correction modeling. Copyright 1998 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Payne, James E, 1998. "The Tax-Spend Debate: Time Series Evidence from State Budgets," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 95(3-4), pages 307-320, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:95:y:1998:i:3-4:p:307-20

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1985. "Network Externalities, Competition, and Compatibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 424-440, June.
    2. North, Douglass C., 1971. "Institutional Change and Economic Growth," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 118-125, March.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Do More Revenues Lead to More or Less Spending?
      by Matt Mitchell in Neighborhood Effects on 2011-08-05 22:33:12


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    Cited by:

    1. Francisco de Castro & José M. González-Páramo & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2001. "Evaluating the dynamics of fiscal policy in Spain: patterns of interdependence and consistency of public expenditure and revenues," Working Papers 0103, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    2. Bernasconi, Michele & Kirchkamp, Oliver & Paruolo, Paolo, 2003. "Expectations and Perceived Causality in Fiscal Policy : An Experimental Analysis Using Real World Data," Papers 03-03, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    3. Bernasconi, Michele & Kirchkamp, Oliver & Paruolo, Paolo, 2009. "Do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations? Experiments with real world and lab data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 253-265, May.
    4. Denilson Torcate Lopes & André Rebelo & Cleomar Gomes da Silva, 2008. "Arrecadar e Gastar ou Gastar e Arrecadar? Evidências para o Caso Brasileiro," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807151811030, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    5. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Spend-and-tax: a panel data investigation for the EU," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2542-2548.
    6. Westerlund, Joakim & Mahdavi, Saeid & Firoozi, Fathali, 2011. "The tax-spending nexus: Evidence from a panel of US state-local governments," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 885-890, May.
    7. Douglas Noonan, 2007. "Fiscal pressures, institutional context, and constituents: a dynamic model of states’ arts agency appropriations," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 31(4), pages 293-310, December.
    8. Bertocco Giancarlo & Fanelli Luca & Paruolo Paolo, 2002. "On the determinants of inflation in Italy: evidence of cost-push effects before the European Monetary Union," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0223, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
    9. Ant??nio Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Bootstrap panel Granger-causality between government spending and revenue in the EU," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp944, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    10. Takumah, Wisdom, 2014. "The Dynamic Causal Relationship between Government Revenue and Government Expenditure Nexus in Ghana," MPRA Paper 58579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Mihai Mutascu, 2015. "Government revenues and expenditures in the EU ex-communist countries: a bootstrap panel Granger causality approach," Working Papers halshs-01109233, HAL.
    12. Tahir Sadiq, 2010. "The Causality between Revenues and Expenditure of the Federal and Provincial Governments of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 651-662.

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