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The Tax-Spend Debate: Time Series Evidence from State Budgets

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  • Payne, James E

Abstract

This paper examines the temporal relationship between revenues and expenditures for the forty-eight contiguous states over an annual period 1942 to 1992. Using an error-correction model, the author finds that the tax-spend hypothesis is supported for twenty-four states. The spend-tax hypothesis is valid for eight states while the fiscal synchronization hypothesis is supported for eleven states. The remaining five states failed the diagnostic tests for error-correction modeling. Copyright 1998 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Payne, James E, 1998. "The Tax-Spend Debate: Time Series Evidence from State Budgets," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 95(3-4), pages 307-320, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:95:y:1998:i:3-4:p:307-20
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Do More Revenues Lead to More or Less Spending?
      by Matt Mitchell in Neighborhood Effects on 2011-08-05 22:33:12

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    Cited by:

    1. Francisco de Castro & José M. González-Páramo & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2001. "Evaluating the dynamics of fiscal policy in Spain: patterns of interdependence and consistency of public expenditure and revenues," Working Papers 0103, Banco de España.
    2. Haoran He & Yefeng Chen, 2021. "Auction mechanisms for allocating subsidies for carbon emissions reduction: an experimental investigation," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 57(2), pages 387-430, August.
    3. Bernasconi, Michele & Kirchkamp, Oliver & Paruolo, Paolo, 2009. "Do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations? Experiments with real world and lab data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 253-265, May.
    4. Denilson Torcate Lopes & André Rebelo & Cleomar Gomes da Silva, 2008. "Arrecadar e Gastar ou Gastar e Arrecadar? Evidências para o Caso Brasileiro," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807151811030, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    5. Temel Gurdal & Mucahit Aydin & Veysel Inal, 2021. "The relationship between tax revenue, government expenditure, and economic growth in G7 countries: new evidence from time and frequency domain approaches," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 305-337, May.
    6. Bernasconi, Michele & Kirchkamp, Oliver & Paruolo, Paolo, 2003. "Expectations and Perceived Causality in Fiscal Policy : An Experimental Analysis Using Real World Data," Papers 03-03, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    7. Douglas Noonan, 2007. "Fiscal pressures, institutional context, and constituents: a dynamic model of states’ arts agency appropriations," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 31(4), pages 293-310, December.
    8. Bertocco Giancarlo & Fanelli Luca & Paruolo Paolo, 2002. "On the determinants of inflation in Italy: evidence of cost-push effects before the European Monetary Union," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0223, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
    9. Teresa Famulska & Jan Kaczmarzyk & Malgorzata Grzaba, 2020. "The Relationship Between Tax Revenue and Public Social Expenditure in the EU Member States," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 1136-1156.
    10. Westerlund, Joakim & Mahdavi, Saeid & Firoozi, Fathali, 2011. "The tax-spending nexus: Evidence from a panel of US state-local governments," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 885-890, May.
    11. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio, 2021. "Structural Tax Reforms and Public Spending Efficiency," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 1017-1061, November.
    12. Takumah, Wisdom, 2014. "The Dynamic Causal Relationship between Government Revenue and Government Expenditure Nexus in Ghana," MPRA Paper 58579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Yousef Elyasi & Mohammad Rahimi, 2012. "The Causality between Government Revenue and Government Expenditure in Iran," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 5(1), pages 129-145, April.
    14. Krasnopeeva, Natalia, 2023. "Revenues and expenditures of Russian regional budgets: Granger causality analysis," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 70, pages 5-33.
    15. Steve Cook & Tom Winfield, 2013. "Crime across the States: Are US Crime Rates Converging?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(9), pages 1724-1741, July.
    16. Rodríguez-Nava, Abigail & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco & López-Herrera, Francisco, 2014. "La necesidad de la reforma fiscal para PEMEX: viabilidad económica y financiera," Sección de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación de la Escuela Superios de Economía del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, in: Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México (ed.), Efectos de las reformas estructurales en las fluctuaciones cíclicas y el crecimiento económico en México, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 43-70, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional.
    17. James W. Saunoris, 2015. "The Dynamics of the Revenue–Expenditure Nexus," Public Finance Review, , vol. 43(1), pages 108-134, January.
    18. Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande & Harold Ngalawa, 2022. "Tax-Spend or Spend-Tax? The Case of Southern Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-10, April.
    19. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Spend-and-tax: a panel data investigation for the EU," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2542-2548.
    20. James E. Payne, 2003. "A Survey of the International Empirical Evidence on the Tax-Spend Debate," Public Finance Review, , vol. 31(3), pages 302-324, May.
    21. Ant??nio Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Bootstrap panel Granger-causality between government spending and revenue in the EU," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp944, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    22. Oyeyinka OMOSHORO-JONES, 2020. "Investigating The Government Revenue–Expenditure Nexus: Empirical Evidence For The Free State Province In A Multivariate Model," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 138-156.
    23. Therese A. Mccarty & Stephen J. Schmidt, 2001. "Dynamic Patterns in State Government Finance," Public Finance Review, , vol. 29(3), pages 208-222, May.
    24. Mihai Mutascu, 2015. "Government revenues and expenditures in the EU ex-communist countries: a bootstrap panel Granger causality approach," Working Papers halshs-01109233, HAL.
    25. Tahir Sadiq, 2010. "The Causality between Revenues and Expenditure of the Federal and Provincial Governments of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 651-662.

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