IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/poprpr/v44y2025i4d10.1007_s11113-025-09968-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Re-Assessing the Impact of Brexit on British Fertility Using Difference-in-Difference Estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Ross Macmillan

    (University of Limerick)

  • Carmel Hannan

    (University of Limerick)

Abstract

The exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union (“Brexit”) was a seismic, and largely unexpected, political and economic event. In a recent contribution to this journal, Mavropoulos (2024) used difference-in-difference (DID) estimation to examine the impact of Brexit on fertility dynamics among European countries and concludes that there are large and robust Brexit effects. DID estimation is a tool for extracting quasi-causal estimates from observational data. As an analytic strategy, it has a number of advantages over traditional regression or covariate adjustment approaches. Using Mavropoulos as a reference point, this article re-visits the Brexit and fertility question using data from the World Bank database to elaborate on the complexities of DID estimation and the critical role of “researcher degrees of freedom”—the decisions that DID analysts must make to satisfy the underlying assumptions of the approach. Empirically, we show the important role of careful selection of control cases and ultimately conclude that there is little support for the ”Brexit hypothesis” with theoretical and methodological issues discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Ross Macmillan & Carmel Hannan, 2025. "Re-Assessing the Impact of Brexit on British Fertility Using Difference-in-Difference Estimation," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 44(4), pages 1-20, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:44:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s11113-025-09968-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-025-09968-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11113-025-09968-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11113-025-09968-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Isabel Ruiz & Carlos Vargas-Silva, 2021. "The Anxiety of Political Uncertainty: Insights from the Brexit Vote," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 697(1), pages 81-98, September.
    2. Debra Friedman & Michael Hechter & Satoshi Kanazawa, 1994. "A theory of the value of children," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 31(3), pages 375-401, August.
    3. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    4. Jun Du & Emine Beyza Satoglu & Oleksandr Shepotylo, 2023. "How did Brexit affect UK trade?," Contemporary Social Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 266-283, March.
    5. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    6. Ron Lesthaeghe, 2010. "The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(2), pages 211-251, June.
    7. Georgios Mavropoulos, 2024. "Brexit and Fertility Implications in the UK and Europe: A Regional DID and Panel Event Study Analysis," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(6), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    2. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    3. Sadeghi, Ali & Kibler, Ewald, 2022. "Do bankruptcy laws matter for entrepreneurship? A Synthetic Control Method analysis of a bankruptcy reform in Finland," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    4. repec:osf:osfxxx:s8ayp_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Bischoff, Ivo & Das, Sourav & Kosfeld, Reinhold, 2025. "Does inter-municipal cooperation reduce the intensity of tax competition? Evidence on inter-local industrial parks in Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    6. Zhentao Shi & Jin Xi & Haitian Xie, 2025. "A Synthetic Business Cycle Approach to Counterfactual Analysis with Nonstationary Macroeconomic Data," Papers 2505.22388, arXiv.org.
    7. Pekka Malo & Juha Eskelinen & Xun Zhou & Timo Kuosmanen, 2024. "Computing Synthetic Controls Using Bilevel Optimization," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 1113-1136, August.
    8. Robert Messerle & Jonas Schreyögg, 2024. "Country-level effects of diagnosis-related groups: evidence from Germany’s comprehensive reform of hospital payments," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 25(6), pages 1013-1030, August.
    9. Dominika Langenmayr & Mikayel Tovmasyan & Sebastian Vosseler, 2025. "Bypassing Sanctions: Hide 'N Seek in Tax Havens?," Working Papers 202536, Center for Global Policy Analysis, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    10. Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo & Helery Tasane, 2023. "Regional Economic Impacts of the Øresund Cross-Border Fixed Link: Cui Bono?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10557, CESifo.
    11. Andrew Hanson & Shawn Rohlin, 2024. "Local employment multipliers for large publicly subsidized firms: Evidence from a synthetic control approach," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 491-526, March.
    12. Emiliano Toni & Pablo Paniagua & Patricio 'Ordenes, 2024. "Policy Changes and Growth Slowdown: Assessing the Lost Decade of the Latin American Miracle," Papers 2407.02003, arXiv.org.
    13. Adam Scavette, 2023. "The Impact of New Jersey's Urban Enterprise Zones on Local Employment: A Synthetic Control Approach," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 37(2), pages 127-142, May.
    14. Andrii Melnychuk, 2024. "Synthetic Controls with spillover effects: A comparative study," Papers 2405.01645, arXiv.org.
    15. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    16. Alexander Goryunov & Elena Ageshina & Igor Lavrentev & Polina Peretyatko, 2023. "Estimating the effect of Russia’s development policy in the Far Eastern region: The synthetic control approach," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 72, pages 58-72.
    17. Adu, Derick T. & Li, Wenying & Sawadgo, Wendiam P.M., 2023. "Estimating the unintended impact of the North American free trade agreement on U.S. public health," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    18. Ron Berman & Ayelet Israeli, 2022. "The Value of Descriptive Analytics: Evidence from Online Retailers," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(6), pages 1074-1096, November.
    19. Cerqua, Augusto & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Temerbulatova, Zhansaya, 2024. "A decade of Eurasian integration: An ex-post non-parametric assessment of the Eurasian economic union," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    20. Avdic, Daniel & von Hinke, Stephanie, 2021. "Extending alcohol retailers’ opening hours: Evidence from Sweden," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    21. Girardi, Alessandro & Ventura, Marco, 2023. "The cost of waiting and the death toll in Italy during the first wave of the covid-19 pandemic," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:44:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s11113-025-09968-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.