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The legacy of the (poor) deceased: The effect of the mortality rate on democracy

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  • Saeed Khodaverdian

    (University of Hamburg)

Abstract

We show that increases in mortality rates causally raise the democracy index within countries, with effects that are robust and consistent across diverse country groups. This relationship is driven by unequal impacts of mortality on economically weaker segments of society, leaving behind a population with higher productivity and greater human capital. These shifts strongly support the mechanisms proposed by Modernization Theory. In extreme cases, elevated mortality can even trigger democratic transitions. Our findings emphasize that changes in health conditions produce distributional effects that reshape political landscapes globally, highlighting the significant role of demographic shocks in political development.

Suggested Citation

  • Saeed Khodaverdian, 2025. "The legacy of the (poor) deceased: The effect of the mortality rate on democracy," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 1-32, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:22:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s10368-025-00688-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-025-00688-2
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    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

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