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Covid-19 infection risk on US domestic airlines

Author

Listed:
  • Arnold Barnett

    (MIT Sloan School of Management)

  • Keith Fleming

    (MIT Sloan School of Management)

Abstract

Working with recent data and research findings, we estimate the probability that an air traveler in economy class would have contracted Covid-19 on a US domestic jet flight over the nine-month period June 2020 to February 2021. The estimates take account of the rates of confirmed Covid-19 infections in the US, flight duration, fraction of seats occupied, and some demographic differences between US air travelers and US citizens as a whole. Based on point estimates, the risk of contracting Covid-19 in-flight exceeded 1 in 1000 on a fully-loaded two-hour flight at the height of the pandemic over the nine months, but was about 1 in 6000 on a half-full flight when the pandemic was at a low ebb. However, these estimates are subject to substantial uncertainty, with the 10th percentiles of various risk distributions only about 1/7 as large as the medians, and the 90th percentiles about four times as large. Based on seat-occupancy levels on US flights for each month over June 2020 to February 2021, the median risk estimate for that period is 1 in 2250, while the mean risk estimate is 1 in 1450. Indirect effects arose because those who contracted Covid-19 on US airplanes could in turn infect others.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnold Barnett & Keith Fleming, 2022. "Covid-19 infection risk on US domestic airlines," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 347-362, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:hcarem:v:25:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10729-022-09603-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10729-022-09603-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vicki Stover Hertzberg & Howard Weiss & Lisa Elon & Wenpei Si & Sharon L. Norris & The FlyHealthy Research Team, 2018. "Behaviors, movements, and transmission of droplet-mediated respiratory diseases during transcontinental airline flights," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 115(14), pages 3623-3627, April.
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