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The Impact of Atmospheric Conditions on the Baseball Totals Market

Author

Listed:
  • Rodney J. Paul

    (Syracuse University)

  • Andrew P. Weinbach

    (Coastal Carolina University)

  • Chris Weinbach

    (STEM Partners, LLC)

Abstract

A study of the physics of baseball has shown that air density plays a significant role in the distance a batted baseball will travel. Air density is a function of altitude, temperature, humidity, and barometric pressure. This paper tests if air density impacts the totals market in Major League Baseball by influencing the number of runs in a game above and beyond the betting market total. Through regression analysis and betting simulations of the 2012 season, it is shown that air density has an inverse relationship with total runs scored and simple betting strategies are constructed that yield positive returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach & Chris Weinbach, 2014. "The Impact of Atmospheric Conditions on the Baseball Totals Market," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 9(3), pages 249-260, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:jsf:intjsf:v:9:y:2014:i:3:p:249-260
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    baseball; weather; scoring; betting; market efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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