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The Financial Consequences of Unbalanced Betting on NFL Games

Author

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  • Brad R. Humphreys

    () (University of Alberta)

Abstract

Previous research on point spread betting often assumed that bookmakers attract an equal volume of bets on either side of games in order to maximize profits. This paper examines the plausibility of this assumption. Financial simulations based on actual bet volumes on NFL games, point spreads, and game outcomes over the 2005-2008 NFL seasons indicate that unbalanced betting generated positive profits for book makers, including profits larger than would have been made if the betting volume was balanced on all games.

Suggested Citation

  • Brad R. Humphreys, 2011. "The Financial Consequences of Unbalanced Betting on NFL Games," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 6(1), pages 60-71, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:jsf:intjsf:v:6:y:2011:i:1:p:60-71
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Babatunde Buraimo & David Peel & Rob Simmons, 2013. "Systematic Positive Expected Returns in the UK Fixed Odds Betting Market: An Analysis of the Fink Tank Predictions," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(4), pages 1-15, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    point spread betting; financial simulation;

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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