IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jof/jforec/v20y2001i5p297-314.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Output Growth Rates and Median Output Growth Rates: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Tobias, Justin L

Abstract

This paper describes procedures for forecasting countries' output growth rates and medians of a set of output growth rates using Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) models. The purpose of this paper is to show how the gamma-shrinkage forecast of Zellner and Hong (1989) emerges from a hierarchical Bayesian model and to describe how the Gibbs sampler can be used to fit this model to yield possibly improved output growth rate and median output growth rate forecasts. The procedures described in this paper offer two primary methodological contributions to previous work on this topic: (1) the weights associated with widely-used shrinkage forecasts are determined endogenously, and (2) the posterior predictive density of the future median output growth rate is obtained numerically from which optimal point and interval forecasts are calculated. Using IMF data, we find that the HB median output growth rate forecasts outperform forecasts obtained from variety of benchmark models. Copyright © 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias, Justin L, 2001. "Forecasting Output Growth Rates and Median Output Growth Rates: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 297-314, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:20:y:2001:i:5:p:297-314
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Justin L. Tobias & Mingliang Li, 2003. "A finite-sample hierarchical analysis of wage variation across public high schools: evidence from the NLSY and high school and beyond," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(3), pages 315-336.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:20:y:2001:i:5:p:297-314. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.