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Α Model of Debt Deflation and the Phillips Curve: Implications for Business Cycles and the Balance Sheet Channel of Monetary Policy / Schulden-Deflation und die Phillips-Kurve: Implikationen für Konjunkturzyklen und den Bilanzkanal der Geldpolitik

Listed author(s):
  • Arnold Lutz

    ()

    (Universität Dortmund, Lehrstuhl für MakroÖkonomik, Vogelpothsweg 87, D-44227 Dortmund)

New Keynesian economics stresses the positive link between firms’ net worth, on the one hand, and the equilibrium level of credit granted and aggregate employment, on the other hand. The present paper argues that once money is introduced and adaptive inflation expectations are assumed, an accelerationist Phillips curve emerges: because of debt deflation, an increase in the rate of inflation reduces firms' real debt burden; because of the negative link between real debt and employment, unemployment falls. The natural rate of unemployment is the rate that occurs when inflation is constant. Frisch has proposed modeling business cycles by means of stochastic linear second-order difference equations which display damped oscillations in the absence of stochastic impulses. The New Keynesian model with adaptive expectations expounded here gives rise to business cycles in Frisch’s sense. This can be shown by applying Laidler’s result, derived in a different set-up, that the interaction between an accelerationist Phillips curve and the quantity theory of money yields Frisch-type cycles. Moreover, the model presented sheds some light on the working of the balance sheet channel of monetary policy.

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Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik).

Volume (Year): 220 (2000)
Issue (Month): 4 (August)
Pages: 385-399

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Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:220:y:2000:i:4:p:385-399
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  1. Lovell, Michael C, 1986. "Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 110-124, March.
  2. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, "undated". "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  3. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers 95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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  7. Solow, Robert M., 1979. "Another possible source of wage stickiness," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 79-82.
  8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
  9. King, Mervyn, 1994. "Debt deflation: Theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 419-445, April.
  10. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
  11. Douglas Gale & Martin Hellwig, 1985. "Incentive-Compatible Debt Contracts: The One-Period Problem," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 647-663.
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