An Approach to Identify First Signs of a Development toward a Cyclical Turning Point
The usual estimation methods provide only a blurred picture of the cyclical development for the current values of a time series, the section that is of most interest for short-term economic analysis. As an alternative, an approach to identify first signs of a development toward a cyclical turning point is suggested. The method is based on the moving adaptation of a parabola to predetermined sections of time series and determines a change in the curve of the consecutive parabolas as a first signal of a turning point. The different features of economic time series call for a time series specific design of the method. Some measures, like the determination of the length of the parabola or the moderation of the irregular movement in advance, allow a certain turning. On principle, the lead and the reliability of the signals decrease with the share of the irregular movement on the variance of the time series and increase with the smoothness of its cyclical development.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 218 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3+4 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 (0)641 99 22 001
Fax: +49 (0)641 99 22 009
Web page: http://wiwi.uni-giessen.de/home/oekonometrie/Jahrbuecher/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:218:y:1999:i:3-4:p:309-324. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Winker)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.