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Subjektive Kurserwartungsbildung auf Aktienmärkten. Rationaler Erwartungsansatz versus Ansatz der Quartischen-Modalwert-Erwartungen / The Individual Expectation Formation Process on Stock Markets. Rational Expectations vs. Q-Mode-Expectations

Author

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  • Kugler Friedrich
  • Hanusch Horst

    (Universität Augsburg, Lehrstuhl für VWL V, Universitätsstraße 2, D-86135 Augsburg)

Abstract

With this paper we attempt to complement the discussion on price volatility on stock markets by an approach, which can also take into consideration so-called nonrational behaviour. This happens by formally integrating socioeconomic elements into the price expectation process of the share holder. To model this the relatively unknown approach of the Q-Mode-Expectations is used and is faced with Rational Expectations normally used in models of financial markets. As a result we obtain over- and underevaluations or even sudden changes of the individual price expectation compared with the fundamental value which can be mainly attributed to psychological influences.

Suggested Citation

  • Kugler Friedrich & Hanusch Horst, 1995. "Subjektive Kurserwartungsbildung auf Aktienmärkten. Rationaler Erwartungsansatz versus Ansatz der Quartischen-Modalwert-Erwartungen / The Individual Expectation Formation Process on Stock Markets. Rat," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 214(2), pages 195-208, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:214:y:1995:i:2:p:195-208
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-1995-0207
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