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Assessing the Predictive Power of Vulnerability Measures:Evidence from Panel Data for Argentina and Chile


  • Marcelo Bérgolo

    () (CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata,and IECON, Universidad de la República)

  • Guillermo Cruces

    () (CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, and CONICET)

  • Andrés Ham

    () (University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign)


This article carries out a validation exercise of vulnerability measures as predictors of poverty at the aggregate and micro levels based on short and long term panel data for Argentina and Chile. It then compares their performance to that of deprivation indicators. The main findings indicate that while vulnerability measures are good predictors of poverty in the aggregate, the same does not occur at household level. These results imply that while useful, vulnerability estimates require incorporating shocks to attenuate biased estimates if they are to be used for targeting purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Bérgolo & Guillermo Cruces & Andrés Ham, 2012. "Assessing the Predictive Power of Vulnerability Measures:Evidence from Panel Data for Argentina and Chile," Journal of Income Distribution, Ad libros publications inc., vol. 21(1), pages 28-64, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:jid:journl:y:2012:v:21:i:1:p:28-64

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    Cited by:

    1. Maike Hohberg & Katja Landau & Thomas Kneib & Stephan Klasen & Walter Zucchini, 2018. "Vulnerability to poverty revisited: Flexible modeling and better predictive performance," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 16(3), pages 439-454, September.
    2. Amuzu, Joshua & Kabo- Bah, Amos T. & Jallow, Bubu Pateh & Yaffa, Sidat, 2018. "Households’ Livelihood Vulnerability to Climate Change and Climate Variability: A Case Study of the Coastal Zone, The Gambia," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 35-46.

    More about this item


    vulnerability; poverty; targeting; Argentina; Chile;

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs


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