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Assessing the Predictive Power of Vulnerability Measures:Evidence from Panel Data for Argentina and Chile

Author

Listed:
  • Marcelo Bérgolo

    () (CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata,and IECON, Universidad de la República)

  • Guillermo Cruces

    () (CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, and CONICET)

  • Andrés Ham

    () (University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign)

Abstract

This article carries out a validation exercise of vulnerability measures as predictors of poverty at the aggregate and micro levels based on short and long term panel data for Argentina and Chile. It then compares their performance to that of deprivation indicators. The main findings indicate that while vulnerability measures are good predictors of poverty in the aggregate, the same does not occur at household level. These results imply that while useful, vulnerability estimates require incorporating shocks to attenuate biased estimates if they are to be used for targeting purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Bérgolo & Guillermo Cruces & Andrés Ham, 2012. "Assessing the Predictive Power of Vulnerability Measures:Evidence from Panel Data for Argentina and Chile," Journal of Income Distribution, Ad libros publications inc., vol. 21(1), pages 28-64, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:jid:journl:y:2012:v:21:i:1:p:28-64
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    File URL: http://jid.journals.yorku.ca/index.php/jid/article/view/32126
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    Keywords

    vulnerability; poverty; targeting; Argentina; Chile;

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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