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Political debate as a filter: defence policy dynamics in EU member states (2004-2024)

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  • Georgi Penchev

    (University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria)

Abstract

This article examines the relationship between external threats, domestic political debate, and defence expenditures in EU member states, 2004-2024. Using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) applied to Manifesto Project data, political debate dynamics are quantitatively measured against a threat index constructed from UCDP conflict fatalities. Robustness is confirmed against per-capita and distance-weighted variants and the Caldara-Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk index. Cluster analysis identifies four threat-response patterns and two debate-spending patterns. Right-wing governments show systematically higher defence stances. GDP-weighted EU averages diverge substantially from simple averages, particularly for opposition stances. The comparative analysis confirms the mediating role of domestic politics in European defence policy heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Georgi Penchev, 2026. "Political debate as a filter: defence policy dynamics in EU member states (2004-2024)," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 17, pages 216-243, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:jes:eurint:y:2026:v:17:p:216-243
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.47743/ejes-2026-0109
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