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The Effects of a Dual Exchange Rate System in a Financial Crisis: A Target Zone Perspective


  • Chung-rou Fang

    () (Department of Economics, National Cheng-Chi University, Taiwan)


Based on the modified Froot and Obstfeld (1991a) simple stochastic macro model, this paper addresses the relative stabilizing performance of a dual exchange rate system from the viewpoint of target zones. We focus on an experiment in which the central bank implements a target zone policy in the commercial exchange market to maintain the commercial exchange rate within a specific band, but does not engage in any intervention in the financial exchange market, thus allowing the financial exchange rate to float freely. In contrast to the conventional wisdom, upon the shock of a change in commodity production, we find that the inverse movement of these two rates does not always occur under the target zone perspective. The relative elasticity of the real commercial rate to income in the balance of payments is the crucial point for the desirability of targeting the commercial rate. Therefore, in deciding whether to execute the commercial rate target zone, the central bank needs to consider the country's condition and main goals; the issue may merit consideration in countries that have encountered an aggregate supply shock financial crisis situation.

Suggested Citation

  • Chung-rou Fang, 2011. "The Effects of a Dual Exchange Rate System in a Financial Crisis: A Target Zone Perspective," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 7(2), pages 159-183, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:jec:journl:v:7:y:2011:i:2:p:159-183

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    3. Cathy W.S. Chen & Richard Gerlach & Edward M. H. Lin & W. C. W. Lee, 2012. "Bayesian Forecasting for Financial Risk Management, Pre and Post the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(8), pages 661-687, December.
    4. Yi-Ping Chang & Jing-Xiu Lin & Chih-Tun Yu, 2016. "Calculating Value-at-Risk Using the Granularity Adjustment Method in the Portfolio Credit Risk Model with Random Loss Given Default," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 12(2), pages 157-176, August.
    5. Mazin Al Janabi, 2013. "Optimal and coherent economic-capital structures: evidence from long and short-sales trading positions under illiquid market perspectives," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 205(1), pages 109-139, May.
    6. Robert A. Jarrow & Philip Protter & Alexandre F. Roch, 2012. "A liquidity-based model for asset price bubbles," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(9), pages 1339-1349, August.
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    More about this item


    financial crisis; dual exchange rate system; exchange-rate target zones; speculative attacks; exchange regime collapse;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy


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