GIS-Based Assessment of Potential Emergency Assembly Areas: A Staged Planning Framework and Population-Coverage Analysis

Emergency assembly-area planning requires distinct assessments of safety, accessibility, capacity, and operational readiness. This study combines a literature-informed planning framework with a GIS-based analysis of potential population coverage. The framework is structured around six stages: hazard screening, accessibility assessment, demand–capacity analysis, operational preparedness evaluation, comparison of feasible alternatives, and scenario-based testing. The accessibility stage was demonstrated in the Odunpazarı and Tepebaşı districts of Eskişehir, Türkiye, using a 2024 WorldPop gridded population dataset and 444 selected urban parks. Euclidean buffers of 300 m, 500 m, and 800 m were generated and dissolved at each threshold to avoid double-counting populations in overlapping service areas. Estimated population coverage increased from 66.9% within 300 m to 78.7% within 500 m and 82.5% within 800 m. The relatively small increase beyond 500 m indicates diminishing coverage gains as the assumed spatial reach expands. These estimates represent potential spatial coverage only; they do not demonstrate pedestrian accessibility or operational suitability. Thus, the case study illustrates the population-coverage component of the staged framework, while hazard exposure, usable capacity, operational preparedness, and performance under disrupted network conditions remain to be evaluated. The study provides a structured basis for identifying the further assessments required before potential locations can be designated as suitable emergency assembly areas.