When Contact Backfires and when It Does Not: A Computational Model of the Opinion Dynamics of Intergroup Attitudes

Concerns about affective polarization have renewed interest in intergroup contact as a means to improve outgroup attitudes. However, contact is only one factor in a broader set of interconnected processes during social interactions. We present a computational agent-based model of intergroup attitude dynamics, incorporating both the effects of interpersonal intergroup contact and social influence by ingroup peers, accounting for changing relationships. We use the model to explore potential threats to positive outcomes of intergroup contact, such as entrenched xenophobia, common in protracted conflicts. Simulations imply that, while intergroup interactions can improve outgroup attitudes, they may also exacerbate affective polarization. Paradoxically, deeply entrenched xenophobia and strong contributions of outgroup attitudes to overall bias can attenuate polarization by reducing negative interactions or causing internal splits within groups. These findings highlight the complex interplay between contact, social influence, and network dynamics in shaping intergroup attitudes in conflict settings.