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Agent-Based Simulation of West Asian Urban Dynamics: Impact of Refugees

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Abstract

Rapid international migration of significant populations generates profound implications for countries in West Asia, Europe, and other regions. The motivation of this work is to develop an agent-based model (ABM) to capture the existence of such migrant and refugee flows, and to explore the effects of these flows on urban dynamics. Advances in agent-based modelling have led to theoretically-grounded spatial agent models of urban dynamics, capturing the dynamics of population, property prices, and regeneration. In this article we leverage such an extant agent-based model founded on the rent-gap theory, as a lens to study the effect of sizeable refugee migration upon a capital city in West Asia. In order to calibrate and validate the simulation model we construct indices for housing prices and other factors. Results from the model, implemented in NetLogo, show the impact of migration shock on the housing market, and identify the relative efficacy of housing intervention policies. Our work progresses towards a tool for policy makers asking what-if questions about the urban environment in the context of migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Termos & Stefano Picascia & Neil Yorke-Smith, 2021. "Agent-Based Simulation of West Asian Urban Dynamics: Impact of Refugees," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 24(1), pages 1-2.
    • Handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2020-116-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carlos M. Lemos & Ross J. Gore & Laurence Lessard-Phillips & F. LeRon Shults, 2020. "A network agent-based model of ethnocentrism and intergroup cooperation," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 463-489, April.
    2. Birnur Özbaş & Onur Özgün & Yaman Barlas, 2014. "Modeling and Simulation of the Endogenous Dynamics of Housing Market Cycles," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 17(1), pages 1-19.
    3. James Anderson & Alok Chaturvedi & Mike Cibulskis, 2007. "Simulation tools for developing policies for complex systems: Modeling the health and safety of refugee communities," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 331-339, December.
    4. Liliana Perez & Suzana Dragicevic & Jonathan Gaudreau, 2019. "A geospatial agent-based model of the spatial urban dynamics of immigrant population: A study of the island of Montreal, Canada," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-23, July.
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