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Anclas Nominales y su Impacto en Economías Pequeñas: un Análisis Comparativo entre los Esquemas Determinista y Estocástico

Author

Listed:
  • Venegas-Martínez, Francisco

    () (Instituto Politécnico Nacional.)

  • Rodríguez-Nava, Abigail

    () (Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Unidad Xochimilco.)

Abstract

En este trabajo se desarrollan varios modelos para estudiar, en los marcos determinista y estocástico, las políticas de estabilización de precios que utilizan al tipo de cambio como un ancla nominal. Los modelos propuestos permiten examinar los efectos de estas políticas en la cuenta corriente de la balanza de pagos, el tipo de cambio real y el consumo. En el marco determinista se muestra que estos programas de estabilización generan un déficit temporal sobre la cuenta corriente de la balanza de pagos en economías con un bien (comerciable internacionalmente) y una apreciación del tipo de cambio real en economías con dos bienes (comerciables y no comerciables). En el primer caso (con un bien), entre más corto sea el periodo de estabilización, mayor será el déficit en la cuenta corriente. En el segundo caso (con dos bienes), entre más corto sea el periodo de estabilización, mayor será la apreciación del tipo de cambio real. Posteriormente, se desarrolla un modelo estocástico de estabilización temporal con supuestos similares al marco determinista para estudiar el comportamiento del consumo. Por último, se analizan las diferencias entre los casos determinista y estocástico y se establecen sus ventajas y limitaciones, en términos de los resultados que proporcionan. / This paper is aimed to develop several models to study stabilization policies under the deterministic and stochastic frameworks when the exchange rate is taken as a nominal anchor. The proposed models are useful to examine the effects of such policies on the current account of the balance of payments, the real exchange rate, and consumption. Under the deterministic scheme, it is shown that this kind of stabilization programs generates a temporary deficit on the current account of the balance of payments in economies with one good (internationally tradable), and an appreciation of the real exchange rate in economies with two goods (tradable and non tradable). In the first case (with a single good) the shorter the stabilization period, the greater the deficit in the current account. In the second case (with two goods) the shorter the stabilization period, the greater the type of real exchange rate. Subsequently, a stochastic model of temporary stabilization is developed under similar assumptions to the deterministic scheme to study consumption behavior. Finally, the deterministic and stochastic frameworks are compared and their advantages and limitations are established in terms of the provided results.

Suggested Citation

  • Venegas-Martínez, Francisco & Rodríguez-Nava, Abigail, 2009. "Anclas Nominales y su Impacto en Economías Pequeñas: un Análisis Comparativo entre los Esquemas Determinista y Estocástico," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(08), pages 63-100, primer se.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipn:panora:v:iv:y:2009:i:08:p:63-100
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    Keywords

    Estabilización de precios; tipo de cambio; política macroeconómica / Inflation stabilization; exchange rate; macroeconomic policy;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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