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A Weighted Autoregressive Model to Improve Mobile Emissions Estimates for Locations with Spatial Dependence

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  • Sung-Eun Kim

    (Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Cincinnati, ML 0025, Cincinnati, Ohio 45221-0025)

  • Debbie Niemeier

    (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, Davis, California 95616)

Abstract

For air quality analysis, travel demand model output must be converted to the fine-grained spatial and temporal resolution required by the photochemical models. In particular, network link volume estimates by modeling period (i.e., AM, PM, off-peak) must be converted to hourly profiles. New methods for accomplishing this have not taken spatial autocorrelation into account. This research proposes a weighted autoregressive model for estimating hourly profiles when geographic ordering (i.e., links on a network) is present. An iterative maximum likelihood estimation procedure is developed and used to estimate allocation factors, which disaggregate period-based travel demand model assignments into hourly profiles, for San Diego. Three different forms of the weight matrix, W 1 (binary), W 2 (reciprocal distance), and W 3 (combination of W 1 and W 2), are tested in the analysis. The results indicate that autocorrelation from geographic ordering can be eliminated with the proposed technique.

Suggested Citation

  • Sung-Eun Kim & Debbie Niemeier, 2001. "A Weighted Autoregressive Model to Improve Mobile Emissions Estimates for Locations with Spatial Dependence," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(4), pages 413-424, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:35:y:2001:i:4:p:413-424
    DOI: 10.1287/trsc.35.4.413.10434
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    Cited by:

    1. Sotirios Thanos & Maria Kamargianni & Andreas Schäfer, 2018. "Car Travel Demand: Spillovers and Asymmetric Price Effects in a Spatial Setting," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(3), pages 621-636, June.
    2. Hualin Xie & Zhifei Liu & Peng Wang & Guiying Liu & Fucai Lu, 2013. "Exploring the Mechanisms of Ecological Land Change Based on the Spatial Autoregressive Model: A Case Study of the Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.

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