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Lanchester Models of Guerrilla Engagements

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  • Marvin B. Schaffer

    (The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California)

Abstract

This paper develops a set of Lanchester-type equations modeling small-force guerrilla engagements that are typical of the early stages of insurgency. These equations include the effects of supporting weapons and the discipline or morale of the troops involved. The novelty of this treatment from the mathematical point of view is the use of time-dependent weapon-efficiency coefficients. Although the models and theory are not adequate to predict the outcome of an insurgency, they should prove useful for examining the credibility of casualty claims associated with such conflict. In addition, the models provide useful insight regarding the important attack parameters of guerrilla warfare. In some cases, notably those concerning ambushes, the theory suggests new military hardware that in the past has been difficult to justify on analytical grounds.

Suggested Citation

  • Marvin B. Schaffer, 1968. "Lanchester Models of Guerrilla Engagements," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 16(3), pages 457-488, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:16:y:1968:i:3:p:457-488
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.16.3.457
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    Cited by:

    1. Daewon Chung & Byeongseon Jeong, 2024. "Analyzing Russia–Ukraine War Patterns Based on Lanchester Model Using SINDy Algorithm," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-14, March.
    2. Moshe Kress, 2020. "Lanchester Models for Irregular Warfare," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-14, May.
    3. Yuri M. Zhukov, 2014. "Theory of Indiscriminate Violence," Working Paper 365551, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    4. Burton Lucy & Johnson Shane D. & Braithwaite Alex, 2017. "Potential uses of Numerical Simulation for the Modelling of Civil Conflict," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 1-39, January.
    5. Chad W. Seagren & Donald P. Gaver & Patricia A. Jacobs, 2019. "A stochastic air combat logistics decision model for Blue versus Red opposition," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 66(8), pages 663-674, December.
    6. Manh D Hy & My A Vu & Nam H Nguyen & Anh N Ta & Dinh V Bui, 2020. "Optimization in an asymmetric Lanchester (n, 1) model," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 17(1), pages 117-122, January.
    7. Moshe Kress & Roberto Szechtman, 2009. "Why Defeating Insurgencies Is Hard: The Effect of Intelligence in Counterinsurgency Operations---A Best-Case Scenario," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 578-585, June.
    8. Edward H. Kaplan & Moshe Kress & Roberto Szechtman, 2010. "Confronting Entrenched Insurgents," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 329-341, April.

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