IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v35y1989i5p585-596.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty and Leontief Systems: An Application to the Selection of Space Station System Designs

Author

Listed:
  • James Quirk

    (California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91125)

  • Mark Olson

    (California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91125)

  • Hamid Habib-Agahi

    (Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91109)

  • George Fox

    (Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91109)

Abstract

This paper deals with the problem of designing a critical component of a highly interactive technologically advanced system, one in which there is uncertainty as to technological and cost parameters. The particular example discussed in the paper is the choice of an energy module for Space Station, where two alternatives, PV and SD, were under consideration. If the uncertainty associated with technological and cost parameters were ignored, and a choice made solely on the basis of "best guesses" of NASA engineers as to parameter values, then SD, which has been implemented only in small scale laboratory applications, would be a clearcut "design to cost" winner. The situation is different when the "best guess" estimates are replaced by subjective probability distributions over technological and cost parameters. The paper outlines a "safety first" decision making model which suggests that the more reliable PV, which has been used on all previous space missions, becomes the preferred choice for highly risk averse decision makers.

Suggested Citation

  • James Quirk & Mark Olson & Hamid Habib-Agahi & George Fox, 1989. "Uncertainty and Leontief Systems: An Application to the Selection of Space Station System Designs," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(5), pages 585-596, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:35:y:1989:i:5:p:585-596
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.35.5.585
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.35.5.585
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.35.5.585?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Umed Temurshoev, 2015. "Uncertainty treatment in input-output analysis," Working Papers 2015-004, Universidad Loyola Andalucía, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:35:y:1989:i:5:p:585-596. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.