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Notes--Discovering Personal Probabilities When Utility Functions are Unknown

Author

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  • Franklin Allen

    (The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

Abstract

Standard scoring rules require knowledge of the expert's utility function. This note shows how basic reference lottery tickets can be used to develop scoring rules which do not require this information.

Suggested Citation

  • Franklin Allen, 1987. "Notes--Discovering Personal Probabilities When Utility Functions are Unknown," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(4), pages 542-544, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:33:y:1987:i:4:p:542-544
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.33.4.542
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ian I. Mitroff, 1972. "The Myth of Objectivity OR Why Science Needs a New Psychology of Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(10), pages 613-618, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Armantier, Olivier & Treich, Nicolas, 2013. "Eliciting beliefs: Proper scoring rules, incentives, stakes and hedging," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 17-40.
    2. Chambers, Christopher P., 2008. "Proper scoring rules for general decision models," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 32-40, May.
    3. Fang, Fang & Stinchcombe, Maxwell B. & Whinston, Andrew B., 2010. "Proper scoring rules with arbitrary value functions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1200-1210, November.
    4. Karl Schlag & James Tremewan & Joël Weele, 2015. "A penny for your thoughts: a survey of methods for eliciting beliefs," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(3), pages 457-490, September.
    5. repec:spr:etbull:v:1:y:2013:i:1:d:10.1007_s40505-013-0009-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Theo Offerman & Asa B. Palley, 2016. "Lossed in translation: an off-the-shelf method to recover probabilistic beliefs from loss-averse agents," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 19(1), pages 1-30, March.
    7. Harrison, Glenn W. & Martínez-Correa, Jimmy & Swarthout, J. Todd, 2014. "Eliciting subjective probabilities with binary lotteries," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 128-140.
    8. Li Hao & Daniel Houser, 2012. "Belief elicitation in the presence of naïve respondents: An experimental study," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 161-180, April.
    9. Alvaro Sandroni & Eran Shmaya, 2013. "Eliciting Beliefs by Paying in Chance," Discussion Papers 1565, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    scoring rules; unobservable preferences;

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