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Does Divisional Play Lead to More Pennant Races?

Author

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  • Wayne Winston

    (Indiana University)

  • Ashok Soni

    (Indiana University)

Abstract

A "pennant race" occurs in a sports league if the top two teams in a league finish within m\bar games of each other. We develop an analytical model that can be used to predict the probability that a sports league will have a pennant race. The model is then tested on data from the last 50 major league baseball seasons and is shown to do a remarkable job of predicting the number of pennant races that actually occurred. Finally, we give conditions which ensure that dividing a league of 2n teams into 2n-team divisions will increase the expected number of pennant races. As a corollary to this result we prove that the divisional structure which maximizes the expected number of pennant races must contain no divisions with 4 or more teams.

Suggested Citation

  • Wayne Winston & Ashok Soni, 1982. "Does Divisional Play Lead to More Pennant Races?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(12), pages 1432-1440, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:28:y:1982:i:12:p:1432-1440
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.28.12.1432
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    Keywords

    recreation/sports;

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